MoCoRealEstate

Archive for September, 2010

Pristine Colonial in Damascus

September 27th, 2010 Categories: Clarksburg, Our Homes

This colonial in Damascus has everything a home buyer would want: great condition, bright interior spaces, and a spectacular lot.  Above and beyond, this home offers some unexpected surprises.  Check out the amazing lower level, slate patios and fantastic privacy at www.4PuritanCourt.com.

Posted by Bruce Lemieux | Leave A Comment

Fall Market Overview

September 20th, 2010 Categories: Market Updates

The video below provides a picture of our market in the fall of 2010. Contact us anytime with any questions about our market here (note – this video is in HD so you can click the ‘full screen’ button in the lower right corner and change the setting to 720P HD to see these charts).

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The State of Our $2M+ Real Estate Market

September 15th, 2010 Categories: Bethesda, Luxury Homes, Market Updates, Potomac

Even in today’s market, you’ll see sprawling new estates sprout up along River Road in Potomac.  A few of our clients heard that the upper end of the market was really strong, and others heard it was really soft.  So who’s right?  Let’s take a look at the stats.

Sales History Since 2005

Our market peaked in 2005/2006, so I went back to 2005 to summarize all sales for homes listed $2M or higher:

The sales stats show the demand for $2M+ homes has steadily declined since 2006.  I noted the Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy since it heralded the beginning of the current Great Recession.  Still, credit for high-end properties  tightened-up many months before that.  My own personal benchmark was a very tough $1M closing in March of 2008.  The buyer got what could have been the last jumbo loan with 5% down offered by Bank of America.

Taking a look at annual sales better shows this trend:

Location of 2M+ Sales

It’s no surprise that most of these home sales were located in Bethesda, Chevy Chase and Potomac.  What may be a little surprising is that practically all sales in Montgomery County occurred here – 98%.

Days to Sell

Let’s look at one more metric: time required to sell.  Compared to other price ranges, the most expensive homes have always taken longer to sell.  Since 2006, the average number of days to sell has gone up every year.

As home prices have come down, home buyers in this price segment can get a lot more house for the money.  Still, these trends tell us that downward pricing pressure is still very strong.  Contact us and we can help guide your home search in this market segment of Montgomery County.

Posted by Bruce Lemieux | Leave A Comment

Extravagant Colonial in Potomac Grove

September 12th, 2010 Categories: North Potomac, Our Homes

This regal colonial has 6 bedrooms and 5 1/2 baths and features amazing space and improvements.  Designer paint, marble tile and hardwood flooring, upgraded lighting and a spectacular kitchen make this home a fantastic opportunity.  See just how spectacular it is by seeing all the details and taking a video tour at www.ChinaberryStreet.com.

Posted by Bruce Lemieux | Leave A Comment

MoCoRealEstate.com vs. The Washington Post: Who’s Stats Are Right?

September 5th, 2010 Categories: Market Updates

Just as I posted my analysis of pending sales, I sat down to breakfast with the Washington Post.  Timely enough, it reported that Montgomery County’s pending sales for July was down 22% from 2009, and a staggering 29% from June.  According to my analysis, July’s sales were down 14% from 2009, and down only 6% from June 2010.   That’s a huge discrepancy.  The Post’s article (by the way, I love the Washington Post) indicates a market in free fall.  My analysis suggests a market that’s still stagnate, and possibly getting a little better.  Who’s right?

I sent the following email to Dina ElBoghdady to help see who’s off the ranch.  I hope it’s not me!

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Hi Dina,

I enjoyed your article in the Post this morning (Sunday 9/5). As a real estate agent focused on Montgomery County, I can’t reconcile your stats. I don’t believe they are as bad as reported.

Yesterday, I extracted all 2010 contracts in Montgomery County (properties with a status of Sold, Contract, Contract/No Kickout, Contract/Kickout) for 2010 and compared them to 2009. When evaluating the health of our real estate market, I always look at ‘Contract Date’ since that’s the best indicator of the market at that point in time.

In July, we had 930 contracts vs. 1084 for 2009 – a 14% decrease. June 2010 had 994 – a 6.4% decrease. Your article has a 22% decrease from July 2009, and 29% decrease from June 2010. This is a significant discrepancy. According to your graph, George Mason based their numbers on data from MRIS. I’m looking at the same data and can’t come up with these numbers. I also looked at the ‘Close’ date and got counts for July: 1,800 in 2009, 1,528 in 2010 – a 15% reduction.

I am definitely seeing a higher level of anxiety from sellers and caution from buyers, but I don’t see a market in decline, but rather one that’s pretty flat. Here’s a snapshot that I just completed looking at contracts through the end of August. Overall for 2010, Montgomery County is up 8% in contracts, and contracts in August are up compared to 2009. The tax credit definitely affected the market. I don’t believe the credit brought more buyers into the market, but rather moved purchased forward.

Here’s my assessment of the Montgomery County real estate market. I don’t see a declining market as suggested by your stats, but I see a market — much like the economy — that is getting better, but not by much. A slight improvement from 2009 isn’t a great prize since 2009 wasn’t so good.

Let me know what you think. If anything, I would definitely have someone review GMs stats. I apologize in advance if I’ve got it wrong, but I don’t see how.

Thanks, Bruce.

Posted by Bruce Lemieux | 2 Comments »

Montgomery County Real Estate Bucks National Trends

September 5th, 2010 Categories: Market Updates

National media has recently reported that pending home sales dropped significantly last month.  Here in Montgomery County, we did see a big drop in contracts when the tax credit expired at the end of April.  Since then, has contract activity continued to plummet?

So for our market, contract activity has been relatively flat May through August.  Contract activity for August was up compared to July and higher than August 2009.  Looking at the first eight months of this year, total contract activity is up 8% over 2009.

Still, all trends don’t point in the same direction.  Total inventory has increased just about every month this year.  Later this month, I’ll drill into these stats by areas and price ranges to get a more detailed picture of our market.  Until then, contact us anytime with questions about our real estate market in Montgomery County.

Posted by Bruce Lemieux | Leave A Comment