Sales of upper bracket homes have suffered over the last couple of years, yet 2010′s numbers show signs of a turnaround. Is this the beginning of a recovery for this segment of the market, or are we seeing a dead cat bounce (apologies to cat lovers)? Let’s take a look.
Most Expensive Sales in 2009 and 2010
Before we dig into the numbers, let’s look at the five most expensive sales in 2009 and 2010.
|9109 Harrington Dr||$9.9M||$7.8M||7610 Fairfax Rd||$4.9M||$4.0M|
|9441 Newbridge Dr||$7.0M||$6.5M||4704 Drummond Ave||$4.0M||$3.8M|
|9808 Bentcross Dr||$5.5M||$5.3M||9800 Bentcross Dr||$4.0M||$3.8M|
|9034 Bronson Dr||$5.0M||$5.0M||10021 Bentcross Dr||$3.9M||$3.7M|
|5215 Moorland Ln||$6.0M||$5.0M||10920 Cripplegate Rd||$4.0M||$3.5M|
The five most expensive homes sold in 2009 sold for at least $5 million. The highest sale in 2010 wouldn’t have even made the top 5 in 2009. Scroll down to the end of this post for all Montgomery County homes with an asking price of $4M or more. When this article was written, 18 homes were priced over $4M. [Update on Feb 2011: 11231 River View Road in Potomac sold for $20M. According to MRIS, this historic estate was purchased by Ted Leonsis in a house swap]
Looking Back 11 Years
Looking at sales over the last 11 years provides a longer view for this segment of the market.
602 homes sold for $1M or more in 2010 compared to 530 in 2009 – a very healthy 14% increase. All price segments shown were up in 2010 except for $2M+ sales. 63 homes sold for $2M+ in 2009 compared to 40 in 2010 – a decrease of 37%.
Looking at the total sales volume over this same time period reveals more about today’s market currents:
The number of $1M+ homes was up 14%, but sales volume was up just 6.7%. So even though more homes sold, the average sales price was lower. All segments showed an improvement, except — again — for the $2M+ segment which was down 40%.
Predictions for 2011
Here’s how I interpret these numbers. We did see a nice bounce in 2010 which is clearly a positive sign. This tells us that buyers have the means and motivation to buy homes in the upper brackets. Still, buyers are expecting – and getting – more for their money. To be successful in 2011, sellers must price their home aggressively and be prepared to negotiate.
Also, given the extraordinary number of sales from 2004 to 2008, I expect to see more foreclosures in the upper brackets this year. Just about anyone who purchased a high-end property during that time period would have a very difficult time selling now.
Contact us if you are planning to buy or sell in this market segment in 2011. What are your thoughts about the market for upper bracket homes in Montgomery County? Make a comment and let us know.
The Lux of the Lux: Homes Listed $4M and Higher
See all Luxury Homes Priced $4 Million and Higher.
(all data current as of 12/13/2013)
$4,982,418 : 10812 Red Barn Ln, Potomac7 beds, 7 full, 3 part baths
$5,500,000 : 10120 Counselman Rd, Potomac8 beds, 7 full, 2 part baths
$4,295,000 : 9311 Rapley Preserve Dr, Potomac6 beds, 5 full, 3 part baths
$4,900,000 : 10800 Lockland Rd, Potomac6 beds, 7 full, 2 part baths
$4,900,000 : 3810 Bradley Ln, Chevy Chase5 beds, 5 full, 1 part baths
$10,750,000 : 10501 Chapel Rd, Potomac9 beds, 11 full, 5 part baths
$4,395,000 : 8603 York Manor Way, Potomac7 beds, 7 full, 2 part baths
$4,500,000 : 19 Piney Glen Ct, Potomac6 beds, 7 full, 2 part baths
$8,000,000 : 15325 Masonwood Dr, Darnestown8 beds, 9 full, 4 part baths
$4,590,000 : 9800 Bentcross Dr, Potomac8 beds, 10 full, 2 part baths
$9,975,000 : 6800 Hillmead Rd, Bethesda6 beds, 7 full, 2 part baths
$5,500,000 : 5918 Cedar Pkwy, Chevy Chase4 beds, 5 full, 2 part baths
$4,490,000 : 10 Wissioming Ct, Bethesda5 beds, 7 full, 1 part baths
$5,695,000 : 7016 Natelli Woods Ln, Bethesda6 beds, 8 full, 2 part baths
$18,000,000 : 9005 Durham Dr, Potomac10 beds, 10 full, 5 part baths
$5,250,000 : 8710 Fernwood Rd, Bethesda6 beds, 6 full, 2 part baths
$4,495,000 : 7528 Hampden Ln, Bethesda5 beds, 5 full, 3 part baths
$4,995,000 : 10204 Iron Gate Rd, Potomac9 beds, 10 full, 3 part baths
$6,250,000 : 7224 Arrowood Rd, Bethesda7 beds, 9 full, 2 part baths
$5,890,000 : 9210 Fox Meadow, Potomac7 beds, 8 full, 2 part baths
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.