Signs of Recovery for Luxury Homes in Montgomery County?

Ferocious catSales of upper bracket homes have suffered over the last couple of years, yet 2010’s numbers show signs of a turnaround.  Is this the beginning of a recovery for this segment of the market, or are we seeing a dead cat bounce (apologies to cat lovers)?  Let’s take a look.

Most Expensive Sales in 2009 and 2010

Before we dig into the numbers, let’s look at the five most expensive sales in 2009 and 2010.

2009 2010
Address Asking Sold Address Asking Sold
9109 Harrington Dr $9.9M $7.8M 7610 Fairfax Rd $4.9M $4.0M
9441 Newbridge Dr $7.0M $6.5M 4704 Drummond Ave $4.0M $3.8M
9808 Bentcross Dr $5.5M $5.3M 9800 Bentcross Dr $4.0M $3.8M
9034 Bronson Dr $5.0M $5.0M 10021 Bentcross Dr $3.9M $3.7M
5215 Moorland Ln $6.0M $5.0M 10920 Cripplegate Rd $4.0M $3.5M

The five most expensive homes sold in 2009 sold for at least $5 million.  The highest sale in 2010 wouldn’t have even made the top 5 in 2009.  Scroll down to the end of this post for all Montgomery County homes with an asking price of $4M or more.  When this article was written, 18 homes were priced over $4M. [Update on Feb 2011: 11231 River View Road in Potomac sold for $20M. According to MRIS, this historic estate was purchased by Ted Leonsis in a house swap]

Looking Back 11 Years

Looking at sales over the last 11 years provides a longer view for this segment of the market.

2011 01 Million Dollar Sales in Montgomery County Homes Sold

602 homes sold for $1M or more in 2010 compared to 530 in 2009 – a very healthy 14% increase.  All price segments shown were up in 2010 except for $2M+ sales.  63 homes sold for $2M+ in 2009 compared to 40 in 2010 – a decrease of 37%.

Looking at the total sales volume over this same time period reveals more about today’s market currents:

2011 01 Million Dollar Sales in Montgomery County Volume

The number of $1M+ homes was up 14%, but sales volume was up just 6.7%.  So even though more homes sold, the average sales price was lower.  All segments showed an improvement, except — again — for the $2M+ segment which was down 40%.

Predictions for 2011

Here’s how I interpret these numbers.  We did see a nice bounce in 2010 which is clearly a positive sign.  This tells us that buyers have the means and motivation to buy homes in the upper brackets.  Still, buyers are expecting – and getting – more for their money.  To be successful in 2011, sellers must price their home aggressively and be prepared to negotiate.

Also, given the extraordinary number of sales from 2004 to 2008, I expect to see more foreclosures in the upper brackets this year.  Just about anyone who purchased a high-end property during that time period would have a very difficult time selling now.

Contact us if you are planning to buy or sell in this market segment in 2011.  What are your thoughts about the market for upper bracket homes in Montgomery County?  Make a comment and let us know.

The Lux of the Lux: Homes Listed $4M and Higher

See all Luxury Homes Priced $4 Million and Higher.
(all data current as of 9/20/2014)

  1. 3 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 3,703 sq ft
    Year built: 2014
    Parking spots: 4
    Days on market: 16
  2. 7 beds, 7 full, 2 part baths
    Home size: 10,990 sq ft
    Lot size: 2.00 ac
    Year built: 1998
    Parking spots: 4
    Days on market: 456
  3. 0 beds, 0 baths
    Lot size: 196.71 ac
    Year built: 1850
    Days on market: 176
  4. 4 beds, 4 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 5,084 sq ft
    Lot size: 196.71 ac
    Year built: 1850
    Days on market: 177
  5. 7 beds, 7 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 12,181 sq ft
    Lot size: 2.04 ac
    Year built: 1988
    Parking spots: 3
    Days on market: 166
  6. 8 beds, 10 full, 2 part baths
    Lot size: 2.07 ac
    Year built: 1990
    Parking spots: 4
    Days on market: 474
  7. 4 beds, 5 full, 2 part baths
    Home size: 7,000 sq ft
    Lot size: 34,374 sqft
    Year built: 1976
    Parking spots: 2
    Days on market: 523
  8. 4 beds, 4 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 3,541 sq ft
    Year built: 2015
    Parking spots: 2
    Days on market: 8
  9. 6 beds, 6 full, 2 part baths
    Lot size: 3.81 ac
    Year built: 2015
    Parking spots: 3
    Days on market: 228
  10. 6 beds, 7 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 9,950 sq ft
    Lot size: 1.24 ac
    Year built: 1916
    Parking spots: 4
    Days on market: 59
  11. 8 beds, 7 full, 2 part baths
    Home size: 12,309 sq ft
    Lot size: 1.03 ac
    Year built: 2013
    Parking spots: 3
    Days on market: 316
  12. 5 beds, 4 full, 2 part baths
    Home size: 7,700 sq ft
    Lot size: 2.08 ac
    Year built: 1942
    Parking spots: 3
    Days on market: 2
  13. 0 beds, 0 baths
    Lot size: 40.39 ac
    Days on market: 795
  14. 10 beds, 9 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 11,800 sq ft
    Lot size: 1.36 ac
    Year built: 1895
    Parking spots: 3
    Days on market: 5
  15. 6 beds, 7 full, 2 part baths
    Home size: 9,800 sq ft
    Lot size: 1.53 ac
    Year built: 2002
    Parking spots: 4
    Days on market: 166
  16. 3 beds, 4 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 4,517 sq ft
    Year built: 1999
    Parking spots: 3
    Days on market: 170
  17. 6 beds, 7 full, 4 part baths
    Home size: 11,276 sq ft
    Lot size: 4.07 ac
    Year built: 2008
    Parking spots: 4
    Days on market: 177
  18. 9 beds, 11 full, 3 part baths
    Lot size: 2.00 ac
    Year built: 1991
    Parking spots: 3
    Days on market: 124
  19. 7 beds, 7 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 12,126 sq ft
    Lot size: 27,785 sqft
    Year built: 2009
    Parking spots: 3
    Days on market: 4
  20. 5 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths
    Home size: 4,493 sq ft
    Lot size: 1.54 ac
    Year built: 1957
    Parking spots: 3
    Days on market: 168

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Posted by Bruce Lemieux

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