Ignore Media Reports on the Market – at Least for Now

Last year’s federal tax credit may be long gone, but the effects are still with us when market statistics are reported.  As a result, don’t panic – or rejoice – if you see headlines like the following:

  • “Contracts in April Down 40% from April of Last Year” (the market continues to crater)
  • “Contracts in May up 28% from Last Year” (the market is soaring! yeah!)
  • “Sales in June significantly below Last Year” (again, cratering)

In early 2010, inventory was super low, and buyers went a little crazy and rushed to get homes under contract by April 30th.  As a result, last year’s monthly metrics were really distorted.  The chart below tells the tale.  Until we’re well past monthly activity from early 2010, take any headline with a grain of salt.

2011 Montgomery County MD Contracts by Month

Posted by Bruce Lemieux

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