Ignore Media Reports on the Market – at Least for Now

Last year’s federal tax credit may be long gone, but the effects are still with us when market statistics are reported.  As a result, don’t panic – or rejoice – if you see headlines like the following:

  • “Contracts in April Down 40% from April of Last Year” (the market continues to crater)
  • “Contracts in May up 28% from Last Year” (the market is soaring! yeah!)
  • “Sales in June significantly below Last Year” (again, cratering)

In early 2010, inventory was super low, and buyers went a little crazy and rushed to get homes under contract by April 30th.  As a result, last year’s monthly metrics were really distorted.  The chart below tells the tale.  Until we’re well past monthly activity from early 2010, take any headline with a grain of salt.

2011 Montgomery County MD Contracts by Month

Posted by Bruce Lemieux

  1. Montgomery County MD Maryland Market Update for August 2011 | MoCoRealEstate

    [...] It’s a good thing, that’s for sure. However, comparing anything to 2010 is tricky given the effects of the federal tax credit. In this video, we review activity over the last five months and see how it compares to last [...]

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